Monday, November 30, 2009

Thursday, November 26, 2009

ClimateGate! Bare Naked "Scientists"

Bare Naked "Scientists"
We knew something was up with the "missing data" in September, and now we can be pretty sure why it is missing. This is just shameful, if there is actually any sense of shame left in this world. Read the bit from September, and the bit from November 24.

---FLASHBACK---

September 23, 2009, 4:00 a.m.
The Dog Ate Global Warming
By Patrick J. Michaels
http://article.nationalreview.com/print/?q=ZTBiMTRlMDQxNzEyMmRhZjU3ZmYzODI5MGY4ZWI5OWM=
Imagine if there were no reliable records of global surface temperature. Raucous policy debates such as cap-and-trade would have no scientific basis, Al Gore would at this point be little more than a historical footnote, and President Obama would not be spending this U.N. session talking up a (likely unattainable) international climate deal in Copenhagen in December.


Steel yourself for the new reality, because the data needed to verify the gloom-and-doom warming forecasts have disappeared.

...Warwick Hughes, an Australian scientist, wondered where that “+/–” came from, so he politely wrote Phil Jones in early 2005, asking for the original data. Jones’s response to a fellow scientist attempting to replicate his work was, “We have 25 years or so invested in the work. Why should I make the data available to you, when your aim is to try and find something wrong with it?”


Enter the dog that ate global warming.


Roger Pielke Jr., an esteemed professor of environmental studies at the University of Colorado, then requested the raw data from Jones. Jones responded:
Since the 1980s, we have merged the data we have received into existing series or begun new ones, so it is impossible to say if all stations within a particular country or if all of an individual record should be freely available. Data storage availability in the 1980s meant that we were not able to keep the multiple sources for some sites, only the station series after adjustment for homogeneity issues. We, therefore, do not hold the original raw data but only the value-added (i.e., quality controlled and homogenized) data.
The statement about “data storage” is balderdash. They got the records from somewhere. The files went onto a computer. All of the original data could easily fit on the 9-inch tape drives common in the mid-1980s. I had all of the world’s surface barometric pressure data on one such tape in 1979.


If we are to believe Jones’s note to the younger Pielke, CRU adjusted the original data and then lost or destroyed them over twenty years ago. The letter to Warwick Hughes may have been an outright lie. After all, Peter Webster received some of the data this year. So the question remains: What was destroyed or lost, when was it destroyed or lost, and why?

FASTFORWARD to present: 
NOVEMBER 24, 2009, 7:18 A.M. ET

Global Warming With the Lid Off  
 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704888404574547730924988354.html?mod=WSJ_hp_mostpop_read
The emails that reveal an effort to hide the truth about climate science.


'The two MMs have been after the CRU station data for years. If they ever hear there is a Freedom of Information Act now in the U.K., I think I'll delete the file rather than send to anyone. . . . We also have a data protection act, which I will hide behind."
So apparently wrote Phil Jones, director of the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit (CRU) and one of the world's leading climate scientists, in a 2005 email to "Mike." Judging by the email thread, this refers to Michael Mann, director of the Pennsylvania State University's Earth System Science Center.

SNL; Obama China Visit Parody

If you have not seen this, it's a must see. Does this mean it is FINALLY acceptable to criticize his highness?

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=d9c_1258865433

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Too many people? No, too many Malthusians

They are wrong EVERY time because this is NOT a zero sum game. At what point do we stop listening?

What this potted history of population scaremongering ought to demonstrate is this: Malthusians are always wrong about everything.
The extent of their wrongness cannot be overstated. They have continually claimed that too many people will lead to increased hunger and destitution, yet the precise opposite has happened: world population has risen exponentially over the past 40 years and in the same period a great many people’s living standards and life expectancies have improved enormously. Even in the Third World there has been improvement – not nearly enough, of course, but improvement nonetheless. The lesson of history seems to be that more and more people are a good thing; more and more minds to think and hands to create have made new cities, more resources, more things, and seem to have given rise to healthier and wealthier societies.
Yet despite this evidence, the population scaremongers always draw exactly the opposite conclusion. Never has there been a political movement that has got things so spectacularly wrong time and time again yet which keeps on rearing its ugly head and saying: ‘This time it’s definitely going to happen! This time overpopulation is definitely going to cause social and political breakdown!’
There is a reason Malthusians are always wrong. It isn’t because they’re stupid… well, it might be a little bit because they’re stupid. But more fundamentally it is because, while they present their views as fact-based and scientific, in reality they are driven by a deeply held misanthropy that continually overlooks mankind’s ability to overcome problems and create new worlds.
The language used to justify population scaremongering has changed dramatically over the centuries. In the time of Malthus in the eighteenth century the main concern was with the fecundity of poor people. In the early twentieth century there was a racial and eugenic streak to population-reduction arguments. Today they have adopted environmentalist language to justify their demands for population reduction.
The fact that the presentational arguments can change so fundamentally over time, while the core belief in ‘too many people’ remains the same, really shows that this is a prejudicial outlook in search of a social or scientific justification; it is prejudice looking around for the latest trendy ideas to clothe itself in. And that is why the population scaremongers have been wrong over and over again: because behind the new language they adopt every few decades, they are really driven by narrow-mindedness, by disdain for mankind’s breakthroughs, by wilful ignorance of humanity’s ability to shape its surroundings and its future.
The first mistake Malthusians always make is to underestimate how society can change to embrace more and more people. They make the schoolboy scientific error of imagining that population is the only variable, the only thing that grows and grows, while everything else – including society, progress and discovery – stays roughly the same. That is why Malthus was wrong: he thought an overpopulated planet would run out of food because he could not foresee how the industrial revolution would massively transform society and have an historic impact on how we produce and transport food and many other things. Population is not the only variable – mankind’s vision, growth, his ability to rethink and tackle problems: they are variables, too.
The second mistake Malthusians always make is to imagine that resources are fixed, finite things that will inevitably run out. They don’t recognise that what we consider to be a resource changes over time, depending on how advanced society is. That is why the Christian Tertullian was wrong in 200 AD when he said ‘the resources are scarcely adequate for us’. Because back then pretty much the only resources were animals, plants and various metals. Tertullian could not imagine that, in the future, the oceans, oil and uranium would become resources, too. The nature of resources changes as society changes – what we consider to be a resource today might not be one in the future, because other, better, more easily-exploited resources will hopefully be discovered or created. Today’s cult of the finite, the discussion of the planet as a larder of scarce resources that human beings are using up, really speaks to finite thinking, to a lack of future-oriented imagination.
And the third and main mistake Malthusians always make is to underestimate the genius of mankind. Population scaremongering springs from a fundamentally warped view of human beings as simply consumers, simply the users of resources, simply the destroyers of things, as a kind of ‘plague’ on poor Mother Nature, when in fact human beings are first and foremost producers, the discoverers and creators of resources, the makers of things and the makers of history. Malthusians insultingly refer to newborn babies as ‘another mouth to feed’, when in the real world another human being is another mind that can think, another pair of hands that can work, and another person who has needs and desires that ought to be met.
We don’t merely use up finite resources; we create infinite ideas and possibilities. The 6.7billion people on Earth have not raped and destroyed this planet, we have humanised it. And given half a chance – given a serious commitment to overcoming poverty and to pursuing progress – we would humanise it even further. Just as you wouldn’t listen to that guy who wears a placard saying ‘The End of the World is Nigh’ if he walked up to you and said ‘this time it really is nigh’, so you shouldn’t listen to the always-wrong Malthusians. Instead, join spiked in opposing the population panickers.


http://www.spiked-online.com/index.php/site/article/7723/

Saturday, November 21, 2009

Union "Troubled" by Eagle Scout Project

Look out Scouts- the Union thugs have you in their sites. They would have volunteerism abolished if/when they can get away with it. It is already a Federal crime to volunteer at a private company- you must be paid minimum wage, even if you are willing to work for free to gain valuable experience.

In pursuit of an Eagle Scout badge, Kevin Anderson, 17, has toiled for more than 200 hours hours over several weeks to clear a walking path in an east Allentown park.

Little did the do-gooder know that his altruistic act would put him in the cross hairs of the city's largest municipal union.

Nick Balzano, president of the local Service Employees International Union, told Allentown City Council Tuesday that the union is considering filing a grievance against the city for allowing Anderson to clear a 1,000-foot walking and biking path at Kimmets Lock Park.

"We'll be looking into the Cub Scout or Boy Scout who did the trails," Balzano told the council.

Balzano said Saturday he isn't targeting Boy Scouts. But given the city's decision in July to lay off 39 SEIU members, Balzano said "there's to be no volunteers." No one except union members may pick up a hoe or shovel, plant a flower or clear a walking path.



http://www.mcall.com/news/all-a8_5scout.7084728nov15,0,6238384.story

Climatologists Baffled

When your religion insists the world is flat, reality might deal you a few surprises.


Global warming appears to have stalled. Climatologists are puzzled as to why average global temperatures have stopped rising over the last 10 years. Some attribute the trend to a lack of sunspots, while others explain it through ocean currents.

But notice warming has "stalled", because it would be heresy to consider that they are barking up the wrong tree in the first place.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,662092,00.html

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Good News for Skirt-chasers

Women banned from wearing trousers in Paris

A decree banning women from wearing trousers in Paris is still technically in force, it emerged on Monday, making the laissez-faire French capital theoretically stricter than hardline Sudan in the fashion stakes. The rule banning women from dressing like men – namely by wearing trousers - was first introduced in 1800 by Paris' police chief and has survived repeated attempts to repeal it.


The 1800 rule stipulated than any Parisienne wishing to dress like a man "must present herself to Paris' main police station to obtain authorisation".
In 1892 it was slightly relaxed thanks to an amendment which said trousers were permitted "as long as the woman is holding the reins of a horse".
Then in 1909, the decree was further watered down when an extra clause was added to allow women in trousers on condition they were "on a bicycle or holding it by the handlebars". 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/fashion/fashionnews/6583074/Women-banned-from-wearing-trousers-in-Paris.html

Monday, November 16, 2009

Spitzer Presents at Harvard "Ethics" Conference

Talk about naked emperors!  Well, I guess Madoff was unavailable, so...

Today, former governor Eliot Spitzer will be at Harvard, speaking at the Edmond J. Safra Foundation Center for Ethics, discussing, "What Should Be the Rationale for Government Participation in the Market?" But given Spitzer's past, from Troopergate to Hookergate, one person is very upset—a madam who had Spitzer as a client. In a letter to Professor Lawrence Lessig, Kristin Davis wrote, "For nearly 5 years, I supplied Mr. Spitzer with high priced escorts while he was both Attorney General and Governor. For this crime, I served four months on Rikers Island, had all of my assets confiscated and am now considered a sex offender on 5 years probation. Mr. Spitzer broke both state and federal laws and walked away free."
She also adds, "I am greatly intrigued as to what Mr. Spitzer could contribute to an ethical discussion when as Chief Executive Law Enforcement Officer of NY he broke numerous laws for which he has yet to be punished. As Attorney General he went around arresting and making examples out of the same escort agencies he was frequenting." 

http://gothamist.com/2009/11/12/spitzers_ethics_speaking_gig_at_har.php

38k Drivers Stopped for Air Fresheners, Fuzzy Dice, or GPS Units?

The police state of Illinois.  Seriously now. Where does this end? The "primary enforcement" seat belt laws started all of this nonsense.

An increasing number of drivers are being cited for windshield and window obstructions, which can include anything an officer deems to "materially obstruct" a driver's vision. The only exceptions are government-issued items such as I-PASS boxes and parking stickers.

Since 2004, the number of motorists stopped by state police for breaking the obscure law has jumped 91 percent. In 2004, about 20,000 drivers were warned or cited, most of them receiving warnings. This year, the number is expected to hit about 38,000.

Offenders can expect little sympathy from Master Sgt. Isaiah Vega of the Illinois State Police.

"Driving is a privilege, and drivers should take every precaution," he said. Hanging anything from the rear-view-mirror "could be a dangerous if not deadly error," Vega said.

...
A sheriff's deputy pulled him over in Colorado for his GPS unit. 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-air-freshener-crackdownnov08,0,3262354,full.story

Saturday, November 14, 2009

Serious Environmentalists Should Be Anti Warmist

Resources on a massive scale are being diverted toward the myth, and starving out resources for actual environmental problems. Coyote makes the case;

I often conclude my presentations on climate that conservationists will likely look back in 10-20 years on the global warming hysteria as the worst thing that has ever happened to the environmental movement.  While we focus 110% of our attention on a trace, naturally occurring atmospheric gas that our bodies exhale and plants need to live, here is what we are not focusing on.
All the problems in these pictures are ones we demonstrably know how to solve while still allowing for the economic growth that is pulling a billion Asians our of poverty.  The same cannot be said for our current ability to eliminate CO2, and therefore most combustion, without imploding our economy.

http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2009/11/sucking-the-oxygen-out-of-the-environmental-movement.html

Water on the Moon!

Incredible discovery- I was recently reading a space science book to my boy which bluntly states that "there is no water on the moon".

http://www.cnn.com/2009/TECH/space/11/13/water.moon.nasa/index.html

Friday, November 13, 2009

ACORN- Blocking Their Funding is Unconstitutional!

ACORN has a Constitutional RIGHT to Federal funding.  I'm sure that protecting the people from having their Fed funds cut off is exactly the "infringement" the the founders had in mind with the Due Process clause.

Thursday's lawsuit claims that Congress violated the right to due process enshrined in the Fifth Amendment -- declaring the group guilty of a crime and punishing its members without completing an investigation within the Department of Justice or the IRS.
"It's not the job of Congress to be the judge, jury, and executioner," said Jules Lobel, an attorney representing the Center for Constitutional Rights.
"We have due process in this country, and our Constitution forbids lawmakers from singling out a person or group for punishment without a fair investigation and trial."


http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/11/12/acorn-sues-unconstitutional-funding-cuts-congress/

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

FDIC Seizes Bank Hours After Geithner Gives Them $50m

This is just an unbelievable naked emperor moment. Pretty much sums up our 'through the looking glass' world of insane bailouts and subsidies in one event.


Park National Bank of Chicago received $50 million in tax credits to encourage investment in poor communities at an Oct. 30 ceremony attended by Geithner. Hours later, though, it was seized along with eight other banks around the country that formed part of a holding company called FBOP Corp. and sold to U.S. Bancorp (USB Quote).

One financial services executive, who did not want to be on the record for fear of running afoul of regulators, accused the FDIC of timing the closure as it did in a deliberate effort to embarrass Geithner.


http://www.thestreet.com/story/10624514/1/fdic-disowns-geithner-embarrassment.html?puc=_mdb_html_pla4&cm_ven=EMAIL_mdb_html

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Baby Cry App

 Something truly useful for mankind.

Having trouble understanding your baby’s burbles, screeches and noisy, wheedling screams? There’s an app for that.
The Cry Translator listens to a whining child and analyzes the pitch, volume, tone and inflection of his nerve-jangling noise. Ten seconds later, it provides you with one of five “translations”: hungry, sleepy, stressed, annoyed or bored.


http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2009/11/iphone-application-translates-babies-howls/

Baguette Dropped By Bird Shuts Down The Large Hadron Collider

The Large Hadron Collider, the world's most powerful particle accelerator, just cannot catch a break. First, a coolant leak destroyed some of the magnets that guide the energy beam. Then LHC officials postponed the restart of the machine to add additional safety features. Now, a bird dropping a piece of bread on a section of the accelerator has, according to the Register, shut down the whole operation.
The bird dropped some bread on a section of outdoor machinery, eventually leading to significant over heating in parts of the accelerator. The LHC was not operational at the time of the incident, but the spike produced so much heat that had the beam been on, automatic failsafes would have shut down the machine.
This incident won't delay the reactivation of the facility later this month, but exposes yet another vulnerability of the what might be the most complex machine ever built. With freak accident after freak accident piling up over at CERN, the idea of time traveling particles returning from the future to prevent their own discovery is beginning to seem less and less far fetched. 

http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2009-11/bread-loving-bird-shuts-down-lhc

Kelo Neighborhood Goes To Weeds

Unbelievable. They forced everyone out, took the neighborhood, and now it goes to weeds. Poetic justice in a way, but what a colossal waste. IMHO, this was the Supremes worst act ever- if they can't protect private property from being appropriated for private development, they serve no useful purpose.


The private homes that New London, Conn., took away from Suzette Kelo and her neighbors have been torn down. Their former site is a wasteland of fields of weeds, a monument to the power of eminent domain.
But now Pfizer, the drug company whose neighboring research facility had been the original cause of the homes' seizure, has just announced that it is closing up shop in New London.
To lure those jobs to New London a decade ago, the local government promised to demolish the older residential neighborhood adjacent to the land Pfizer was buying for next-to-nothing. Suzette Kelo fought the taking to the Supreme Court, and lost. Five justices found this redevelopment met the constitutional hurdle of "public use."
Although her side lost, Kelo said she sees the wider ramifications of her property rights battle.
"In the end it was seven of us who fought like wild animals to save what we had," she said. "I think that though we ultimately didn't win for ourselves, it has brought attention to what they did to us, and if it can make it better for some other people so they don't lose their homes to a Dunkin' Donuts or a Wal-Mart, I think we did some good."
 
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/Pfizer-abandons-site-of-infamous-Kelo-eminent-domain-taking-69580497.html

Monday, November 9, 2009

Fall of The Wall Day- 20 Years Ago

This should really be a day of international rejoicing, but for some reason it feels like the lessons of history are being forgotten. We can't even get decent recognition of the event from our gov officials.  Why does Hollywood make hero films about Ernesto Che Guevara?  How is his legacy really any better for humanity than the Fascist dictators who are toxic to champion? Why is it ok for US Administration officials to lovingly quote Chairman Mao, but not Hitler? Pop quiz- who is responsible for killing more people? To me, the only distinction between a "leftist" dictator and a "rightist" dictator are the lies they use to justify their brutal crimes against humanity.

Today, rejoice and remember the brave crowds with the sledgehammers, and the brave border guards who refused to carry out their immoral duties.





[Via Radley Balko]
Today, Berlin celebrates the 20th anniversary of the fall of The Wall. Sadly, much of Europe is already beginning to forget the atrocities wrought by communism. We libertarians regularly make the point that while Nazism is still regularly and justifiably vilified, communism periodically enjoys rebirths of chic. The point can’t be made enough. Not to diminish the horrors of Nazism, but to confront the cultural whitewashing of the horrors of Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot, Il, and the others.
This weekend at the Students for Liberty conference I was privileged to hear the great historian Alan Charles Kors give a rousing and inspiring speech demanding an accounting for the horrors of communism. I don’t think the speech is available online, but here’s an essay Kors wrote for Reason several years ago that touches on the same themes. The concluding graph is stirring.

No cause in the history of mankind has produced more cold-blooded tyrants, more slaughtered innocents, and more orphans than communism. It surpassed, exponentially, all other systems of production in turning out the dead. No one honors those dead. No one does penance for them. No one pays for them. No one is hunted down to account for them. It is exactly what Solzhenitsyn foresaw in The Gulag: “No, no one would have to answer.” Communism was not a “god that failed.” Rather, it was an intellectually organized slaughter and slavery that succeeded, but that could not sustain itself against the productivity and resistance of free men and women.
http://www.theagitator.com/2009/11/09/fall-of-the-wall/

Here's an accounting of the mass "democide".
 

Source: http://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/COM.TAB1.GIF

Friday, November 6, 2009

The Empress Has No Clothes

The peasants are revolting, so we have to work fast!

The Madness of Queen Nancy

More than a few Democrats in Congress are perplexed and worried that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is insisting on ramming through a 1,900-page health care bill on Saturday, just days after her party took heavy losses in Tuesday's elections. "It reminds me of Major Nicholson, the obsessed British major in the film 'Bridge on the River Kwai,'" one Democrat told me. "She is fixated on finishing her health care bridge even as she's lost sight of where it's going and what damage it could cause to her own troops."

Indeed, the Speaker's take on Tuesday's off-year elections struck some of her own members as delusive "happy talk." "From our perspective, we won last night," a cheerful Ms. Pelosi told reporters, citing her party's pick-up of a single House seat in a New York special election and retention of another strongly Democratic seat in California.


But Speaker Pelosi isn't about to step back. In fact, she plans to force her troops to vote on health care just one day after Friday's jobless numbers are due, which are likely to show unemployment still growing. "When I take this bill to the floor, it will win," she proclaimed earlier this year.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704013004574517603592213342.html

Thursday, November 5, 2009

Market Flat For 3 Months When Priced in Euro or Yen

Ouch. All that is nothing but inflation we have not really felt yet. Another interesting fact (not here) is that priced in Euros, the all time market high was not in 2007, it was in 1999.






http://seekingalpha.com/article/171499-dollar-s-decline-has-contributed-to-market-s-recent-rise?source=article_sb_picks

Home Prices- Look out below?!?

Think it's safe to go back in the water?  Home prices are still 43% above their long term trend line! Is there any special reason why prices should hold at 2004 levels?


http://seekingalpha.com/article/170526-property-values-set-to-fall-43-from-current-depressed-levels?source=article_sb_popular

Secret "Anti-Counterfeiting" Trade Agreement

Slow march toward world government- and how is this a matter of grave "national security" that must be done in secret? Do you suppose the RIAA and the MPAA have security clearance here, because it sounds like their lawyers are writing the treaty.
  • * That ISPs have to proactively police copyright on user-contributed material. This means that it will be impossible to run a service like Flickr or YouTube or Blogger, since hiring enough lawyers to ensure that the mountain of material uploaded every second isn't infringing will exceed any hope of profitability.
  • * That ISPs have to cut off the Internet access of accused copyright infringers or face liability. This means that your entire family could be denied to the internet -- and hence to civic participation, health information, education, communications, and their means of earning a living -- if one member is accused of copyright infringement, without access to a trial or counsel.
  • * That the whole world must adopt US-style "notice-and-takedown" rules that require ISPs to remove any material that is accused -- again, without evidence or trial -- of infringing copyright. This has proved a disaster in the US and other countries, where it provides an easy means of censoring material, just by accusing it of infringing copyright.

http://www.boingboing.net/2009/11/03/secret-copyright-tre.html

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Global Warming Gets Legal Religion Status in UK

You no longer have to say that anthropogenic global warming is LIKE a religion.

Climate change belief given same legal status as religion.
An executive has won the right to sue his employer on the basis that he was unfairly dismissed for his green views after a judge ruled that environmentalism had the same weight in law as religious and philosophical beliefs.


In a landmark ruling, Mr Justice Michael Burton said that “a belief in man-made climate change … is capable, if genuinely held, of being a philosophical belief for the purpose of the 2003 Religion and Belief Regulations”.
The ruling could open the door for employees to sue their companies for failing to account for their green lifestyles, such as providing recycling facilities or offering low-carbon travel.


http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/04/its-official-climate-change-beliefs-now-have-religious-status/

India Buys Gold From IMF

This is an important development- the IMF sells some of its gold to India, and the price of gold goes up!
What? Everyone has been speculating that the IMF dumping their gold reserves on the market represents a huge risk to gold investors. Then when it actually happens, gold goes up? What gives?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/170940-india-s-gold-grab-boosts-metal-s-price?source=email

Monday, November 2, 2009

Tax Rates Required to Erase Deficit

Fear this. Really, completely naked, I tell you! Why can't everyone see it!

Assuming deductions, exemptions and credits were kept the same as they are now, the government would have to nearly triple every tax rate. Table 1 shows the effect on statutory rates of such a hypothetical tax hike. Instead of taxing couples with rates that range from 10 percent to 35 percent, tax rates would have to start at 27.2 percent and range up to 95.2 percent.
 http://www.taxfoundation.org/publications/show/25415.html












 



CA Arbitrarily Increases Tax Withholdings By 10%

Statist extortion- To be repaid in April!?! They couldn't even pay out their tax refunds this year- now they are going to extort an extra 10% arbitrarily?- I see more IOUs in the future. Seriously- how does anyone ever get reelected in CA- I think their populace may be even stupider than ours.
"Starting Sunday, cash-strapped California will dig deeper into the pocketbooks of wage earners — holding back 10% more than it already does in state income taxes just as the biggest shopping season of the year kicks into gear.
Technically, it’s not a tax increase, even though it may feel like one when your next paycheck arrives. As part of a bundle of budget patches adopted in the summer, the state is taking more money now in withholding, even though workers’ annual tax bills won’t change.
Think of it as a forced, interest-free loan: You’ll be repaid any extra withholding in April. Those who would receive a refund anyway will receive a larger one, and those who owe taxes will owe less."
A sad historical footnote: It was Milton Friedman who came up with the tax withholding scheme. He spent the rest of his life wishing he could put that genie back in the bottle.

"Stimulus" Writ Small

Stimulus in a microcosm- there is no difference between what this guy is doing and what the Fed Gov is forcing upon us on a grand scale. It's all Bastiat's broken window fallacy.

Arrest Him? He Should Be Named The Obama Stimulus Czar


Tennessee police said a mechanic was drumming up business by tampering with parked cars, then charging to help start them. Police arrested 41-year-old Christopher Walls of Johnson City on Thursday night.
Investigators said Walls disabled cars parked at restaurants, waited for the owners to try to start them and then offered his services as a mechanic. Police said Walls charged between $40 and $200 to get the vehicles running again.
He’s charged with two counts of theft under $500, but police suspect there are other victims. They’re urging anyone else who thinks they were scammed to call them.

http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2009/11/arrest-him-he-should-be-named-the-obama-stimulus-czar.html

Sunday, November 1, 2009

Geithner Should Go Down For This

By all rights, TurboTax Tim should be ousted for this AIG backroom dealing alone;

Still, officials at AIG object to the secrecy that surrounded the transactions. One top AIG executive who asked not to be identified says he was pressured by New York Fed officials not to file documents with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that would divulge details.
“They’d tell us that they don’t think that this or that should be disclosed,” the executive says. “They’d say, ‘Don’t you think your counterparties will be concerned?’ It was much more about protecting the Fed.”
‘An Outrage’
Friedman’s role remains controversial. In December 2008, weeks after the payments to the banks were authorized in November, Friedman bought 37,300 shares of Goldman stock at $80.78 a share, according to SEC filings. On Jan. 22, he bought 15,300 more at $66.61.
Both purchases took place before the payments to Goldman Sachs were publicly disclosed under pressure from Senator Dodd in March. On Oct. 26, Goldman Sachs stock closed at $179.37 a share, meaning Friedman had paper profits of $5.4 million.
Jerry Jordan, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, says Friedman should have resigned from the New York Fed as soon as it became clear that Goldman stood to benefit from its actions.
“It’s an outrage,” Jordan says. “He needed to either resign from the Fed board or from Goldman and proceed to sell his stock.”


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a7T5HaOgYHpE

Roubini on Carry Trade

Is the mother of all short squeezes forming?  This is the only thing the dollar seems to have going for it- that the current carry trade bubble will eventually burst.

So what is behind this massive rally? Certainly it has been helped by a wave of liquidity from near-zero interest rates and quantitative easing. But a more important factor fuelling this asset bubble is the weakness of the US dollar, driven by the mother of all carry trades. The US dollar has become the major funding currency of carry trades as the Fed has kept interest rates on hold and is expected to do so for a long time. Investors who are shorting the US dollar to buy on a highly leveraged basis higher-yielding assets and other global assets are not just borrowing at zero interest rates in dollar terms; they are borrowing at very negative interest rates – as low as negative 10 or 20 per cent annualised – as the fall in the US dollar leads to massive capital gains on short dollar positions.
Let us sum up: traders are borrowing at negative 20 per cent rates to invest on a highly leveraged basis on a mass of risky global assets that are rising in price due to excess liquidity and a massive carry trade. Every investor who plays this risky game looks like a genius – even if they are just riding a huge bubble financed by a large negative cost of borrowing – as the total returns have been in the 50-70 per cent range since March. 

But one day this bubble will burst, leading to the biggest co-ordinated asset bust ever: if factors lead the dollar to reverse and suddenly appreciate – as was seen in previous reversals, such as the yen-funded carry trade – the leveraged carry trade will have to be suddenly closed as investors cover their dollar shorts. A stampede will occur as closing long leveraged risky asset positions across all asset classes funded by dollar shorts triggers a co-ordinated collapse of all those risky assets – equities, commodities, emerging market asset classes and credit instruments.
Why will these carry trades unravel? First, the dollar cannot fall to zero and at some point it will stabilise; when that happens the cost of borrowing in dollars will suddenly become zero, rather than highly negative, and the riskiness of a reversal of dollar movements would induce many to cover their shorts. Second, the Fed cannot suppress volatility forever – its $1,800bn purchase plan will be over by next spring.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9a5b3216-c70b-11de-bb6f-00144feab49a.html